Saturday 05/16/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Saturday 05/16/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Docs National League Game of the Year goes Saturday
(7-unit pick)

Does anybody have it ?
thanks
 
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Craig Trapp

MLB | May 16
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Total 9½ ov-110

Craig keeps up his hot streak in his 5 star Best plays of day going 4-1 this week. Yesterday had Detroit m/l and they won by double digits. Unfortunately Bonus Play lost with the Reds unable to hold onto a late game lead. Today we get back on track with free TOTALS WINNER!!


Betting Trends


Over is 5-2 in Pavanos last 7 starts overall.


Over is 5-0 in Indians last 5 road games.


Over is 5-1-1 in Rays last 7 overall.


Over is 5-1-1 in Garzas last 7 home starts.


Over is 36-17-2 in Rays last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter.



Both of these teams rotations have been very disappointing this season. Pavano was a big offseason pickup for CLE and they thought he would be a quality #2 starter. But thus far he has been giving up a ton of runs. In fact the over has gone over in all but one of his 5 road starts. Even worse news for CLE is that TB bats have been on fire the last 5 games hitting over .312 batting average. Garza has been up and down this year but at home has been giving up way too many runs. So far this season the over is 3-1 in his home starts. Ton of hits and scoring in this match up!SCORE TB 7 - CLE 6
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John Ryan

MLB | May 16
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants +150

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the SF Giants over the NY Mets slated to start at 4:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 30-11 making 26.2 units since 2003. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. SF is a solid 119-102 (+49.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better since 1997. Here again, this angle exemplifies the principals of the AiS neural network methodology. It is just 17 games over 500 win percentage, but has made 49.3 units in profits. I often use the Black Jack analogy for these powerful reinforcing systems and angles. Imagine playing BJ and getting paid $1.40 for every $1.00 winning wager. We would not sleep if that were the case, but it is a reality with my research. Take SF.
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Jimmy Moose
Sport: MLB
Game: L A Angels @ Texas
Date/Time: 5/16/2009 4:10PM EST
Pick: Texas with Padilla -115
Reason: The Rangers are red hot right now and they have been dynamite in divisional games. Take Texas behind Padilla to get the win on Saturday afternoon.
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | May 16
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Total 8½ ov-120

On Saturday the Bonus Play is on the Over in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game.Rotation numbers 911/12 at 7:05 eastern.Both teams have had quiet bats of late.However the total at 8.5 is releatively low when considering the struggles of both starting pitchers home to road dicohtomy in this game.For the Pirates they have I.Snell going tonight.In his home starts vs Colorado he has a 6.23 era while alowing 9 runs in just 13 innings of work,surrendering 19 hits in the process.Both of Snells home starts have gone over this year.For whatever reason the Pirates are an over team on Saturdays going over the total 38 of the last 52 times,including all 5 times this year.Colorado will have A.Cook going in this one and he has a 5.14 era in his lone start vs the Pirates.Look for the bats to awaken in this one.Those looking for a 5 unit pounder consider the AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH backed with a 100% angle and several team trends on both sides.Bases has been real hot cashing 4 straight days.Get on a solid card on Saturday.For the Bonus Play go over the 8.5 runs in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game.bol
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

The White Sox just aren't hitting right now. Worse yet, Friday's 8-3 loss to Toronto was their seventh straight North of the Border and things don't look to get much better Saturday with Bartolo Colon on the bump. In three road starts this year, Colon has zero wins and a 7.90 ERA. He's not likely to get much support from a Chicago offense that has scored four runs or less in six of its last seven games. Very modest price to lay with a quality Blue Jays team here.

Play on: Toronto
 
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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Baltimore w/Hill vs Davies

Baltimore sends recently activated Rich Hill to the mound against struggling Kyle Davies and the Royals in Kansas City Saturday evening in Game Two of this weekend series. Hill makes his first start of the campaign anxious to make up for lost time from an elbow injury that has kept him sidelined. Meanwhile, Davies is 2-1 in his last three team starts despite a 5.77 ERA while issuing 9 walks against 6 strikeouts in those efforts. With that, look for s strong effort by Hill and the Birds here tonight.
 
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James Patrick

Indians vs. Rays

The Tribe has beaten up on the Rays with wins in 20 of 25 and we get a nice long shot in Carl Pavano here. Our Saturday Major League Baseball complimentary selection is Cleveland Indians.
 
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Cajun Sports

Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Colorado Rockies

PNC Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Colorado Rockies. We went against this Rockies team on Friday with our complimentary selection and the Pirates led 1 to 0 in the top of the ninth when the Rockies plated three runs and got the win 3 to 1. On Saturday we will back Colorado with Aaron Cook on the bump and his 2-1 W/L record and ERA of 5.03 on the season. Cook has produced a quality start 71.4 percent of the time and he also sees his ERA drop to 2.57 when he throws under the lights. The Rockies find themselves in several positive situations for tonight’s game they are 8-3 W/L their last eleven when Cook starts on the road versus a team with a losing record, 7-2 W/L their last nine as a road favorite, 4-1 W/L their last five as a favorite of -110 to -150 and finally we note they are 6-2 W/L their last eight versus Pittsburgh overall. Pittsburgh on the other hand is staring down a list of negatives including their starter Ian Snell who is 1-5 W/L on the year with an ERA of 4.50 which includes a 0-3 W/L record in his last three trips to the hill. Snell has only produced a quality start in 57.1 percent of his starts and also struggled at night with an 0-2 W/L record and an ERA of 9.00. The Pirates are 3-13 W/L their last sixteen overall, 18-42 W/L when installed as an underdog, 10-23 W/L as a home underdog and 3-12 W/L their last fifteen when facing a right-handed starter. When Snell takes the bump the Pirates are 16-35 W/L their last fifty-one as an underdog, 2-15 W/L when he is a home underdog, 1-5 W/L their last six following a loss in their previous game and 1-9 W/L when Snell is working on five days rest. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win on Saturday by 2.7 runs over the Pirates and the Math Model Index has the Rockies cashing in with a 3.0 run advantage. The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors suggest we lay the short price with the visitor as the Rockies take game two of this three-game set on Saturday night in the Steel City.

Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 8 Pittsburgh Pirates 5
 
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Jeff Benton

This one’s mostly about Colorado starting pitcher Aaron Cook, who has righted his season after a shaky beginning. Cook has delivered four consecutive quality starts, allowing a total of eight earned runs in 27 innings (2.67 ERA), including back-to-back strong outings against the Padres (one run allowed in eight innings) and Florida (one earned run allowed in six innings).



Today, Cook faces a Pirates lineup that has stopped hitting (three runs scored or fewer in five of its last eight games). More importantly, Pittsburgh has stopped winning, losing 14 of its last 17 games, including six of its last nine at home, including Friday’s 3-1 loss in which the Bucs blew a 1-0 ninth-inning lead. The Pirates also struggle to post victories when Ian Snell is pitching, going 1-6 in his seven starts this season, including 0-4 in his last four outings. And if you take away the one victory – a 10-0 home win over Atlanta – the Pirates have scored a grand total of 15 runs in his six losses (or 2.5 per game). They’ve also been held to a single run in each of their last two games.



The Rockies are 3-1 in Cook’s four career starts against Pittsburgh, including a pair of wins last July by scores of 11-3 and 7-4, and the right-hander has pitched at least six innings in all four of his appearances against the Pirates. Throw in the fact that this game will be played under the lights – Cook has a 2.57 ERA in two night games, while Snell has a 9.00 ERA in three night starts – and I’ll take a shot with the better team, the better starting pitcher and the vastly superior bullpen at a cheap price.

4♦ COLORADO (based on a 1♦ to 10♦ scale)
 
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JIMMY BOYD

1 Unit on White Sox/Blue Jays OVER 10
I expect to see a lot of runs scored north of the border this afternoon. The Sox send Colon and his 7.90 road ERA to the hill and the Jays counter with Ray and his 6.00 ERA. Toronto averages 5.8 runs per game on the season and crushes righties for 6.2 runs per game. The White Sox lineup has not been as potent as expected yet, but it has actually produced better on the road, scoring 4.7 runs per. We saw 11 runs put on the board yesterday with 2 much better starters going in Danks and Cecil. The Over is 10-2 in the White Sox last 12 games as a road underdog, 21-7 in the Blue Jays last 28 vs. the American League Central, and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series. Bet the Over.
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Rocky Atkinson
Game: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners May 16 2009 10:10PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: Boston @ Seattle 10:10 PM EST

Play On: Boston (Beckett/Olson) Listed

Boston is 21-14 on the season while Seattle comes in at 16-19 this year. Seattle is 3-10 this year in May. Boston is scoring 5.6 runs per game overall this year and 6 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Boston bullpen has a good 3.12 ERA overall this year and a 3.34 ERA on the road this season. Seattle is scoring only 3.4 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Garret Olson is making his first start his year and last year his last three starts resulted in three losses. Beckett is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997 while Olson is 0-4 with a 7.76 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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Karl Garrett

This afternoon in the American League, the ball has been bouncy all over Tropicana Field thus far this weekend, as Thursday's Tribe-Rays game saw a combined 18 runs cross the plate, and last night's second round of this four game set saw 15 combined runs come home.

That makes it 2-for-2 in the OVER column this weekend, and makes it 4 of 5 OVER the total for the Indians their last 5 times on the diamond.

Tampa Bay meanwhile has been HIGH their last 4 games, and are on a 6-1-1 OVER clip their last 8.

Should anything change today?

G-Man don't think so, as Carl Pavano is long overdue for a torch job, while the Indians have Matt Garza's number.

Pavano has won 3 straight starts, but his ERA for the season is still well over 6, while Garza's 2 starts last year against Cleveland yielded 11 runs in just 10 innings of work.

The batters have their groove on right now for both teams, and the OVER is looking mighty tasty to me late day Saturday.

3♦ OVER
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

NY Mets at SAN FRANCISCO

Time for a good old-fashioned RUN LINE play this Saturday, as we like Johan Santana to continue his stingy ways, and for the Big Unit Randy Johnson to continue his downhill slide - retire already Randy!

Santana has not allowed an earned run his last 2 trips to the bump, and has a lowly 0.78 ERA through his first 7 starts this season! Last year in his lone start against the Giants he worked 5 scoreless for the win.

It is hard for us to imagine the San Fran attack mustering more than 1 run off of the southpaw in this game.

That means that Randy Johnson is going to have to reach back into his days from yesteryear if he wishes to keep his club in this one, and while the Big Unit can still bring it for 3 or 4 frames, it is unlikely he can hold the fort much longer anymore with authority.

Johnson has allowed 11 runs in his last 11 innings of work, and his season ERA is quite close to 6.

Mets on the RUN LINE the call in this one.

4♦ METS RUN LINE
 
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Tony Weston

Today's Selection

Man, the Twins started out like they were going to get the job done in New York, but of course they can’t do enough as the Yankees pull out that game and hand us a loss in this spot.

That’s fine as we’re getting on the winning track today as we’re taking the Philadelphia Phillies on the road at the Washington Nationals.

After losing two straight games and 4 of 5, the Phillies got back on the winning side as they beat up the Nats 10-6 in Game 1 of this series yesterday.

Including yesterday’s win Philly has taken 3 of its last 4 against the Nats and going back to last year the Phillies are 7-2 their last 9 against Washington and are 15-5 their last 20 against the Nationals.

Consider, too, Nationals scheduled starter Scott Olsen has had his share of struggles this season. In his 7 starts this year Washington is 1-5 with one game being suspended.

Today, Olsen will struggle again as the Phillies beat up on Washington. Take Philly on the road in this one today.

3♦ PHILLIES
 
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Matt Rivers

For Saturday take the Orioles in Kansas City.

I never terribly mind backing a pitcher who is making hsi first start with a new team and that is the situation today with Rich Hill. The former Cubs lefthander has pretty good stuff but he just did not pitch well in the end of his run in Chicago. The guy was a little afraid at times and walked too many guys but I still like the lefty and believe this fresh new start will be just what the Doctor ordered.

Kyle Davies has always had quality stuff and has had a successful start to this season but I still do not trust the former Brave righty and will take some money back here for sure. It's not a ton granted but it is something and worth it in my opinion.

The Orioles are far from being very good but there is an upside there with Roberts, Jones, Markakis and a few others and I do expect some runs to cross the plate for the visitors. They are not up against Zach Greinke once again and should feel a lot looser and ready to rock and roll.

Kansas City is a solid squad that may be in the Divisional race for the long run but they are still not very good without their stud in Greinke on the hill and in the end today this is a very winnable game for Baltimore and at this solid plus money price why the heck not!
 

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